Three Ontario byelections on Thursday left the seat count at Queen’s Park exactly where it was. The Progressive Conservatives held York—Simcoe and Hamilton East—Stoney Creek, and the New Democrats held Scarborough Southwest.
The Liberals finished second in two of the three races and won none.
The results
In Scarborough Southwest, New Democrat Fatima Shaban won by 2,240 votes with 40.47 per cent of the vote, all 57 polls reporting. Turnout was 26.5 per cent. Shaban, a community advocate, beat Liberal Ahsanul Hafiz and Progressive Conservative Noor Tarun.
In York—Simcoe, Progressive Conservative Susan Lahey won by 2,549 votes with 49.81 per cent, against Liberal Naomi Davison’s 38.8 per cent. Turnout was 21 per cent. Lahey is an East Gwillimbury town councillor. The riding has been held by conservatives since it was created in 2007.
In Hamilton East—Stoney Creek, Progressive Conservative Jeff Beattie won by 1,614 votes with 38.87 per cent, ahead of New Democrat Monique Taylor on about 33 per cent and Liberal Heino Doessing on about 23 per cent, all 44 polls reporting. Turnout was 29.25 per cent. Beattie is a long-serving Hamilton city councillor.
The figures are Elections Ontario’s unofficial results. Across the three ridings, turnout was just over 25 per cent.
Why the seats were open
Premier Doug Ford called the three byelections in early August after three members stepped down.
Caroline Mulroney, the former Treasury Board president, left politics in June, saying she wanted to begin a new chapter. Neil Lumsden, the former sport minister, retired in early August. And New Democrat Doly Begum resigned Scarborough Southwest to run federally for the Liberals in the same riding, winning that seat in an April byelection.
What the parties said
Ford framed the two PC wins as a verdict on the trade fight with Washington. “We’re going to fight against Donald Trump,” he said at Beattie’s campaign party in Hamilton. “We’re going to make sure that we protect people’s jobs, protect their communities and protect them.”
Beattie said representing the riding provincially is “the honour of a lifetime,” and that voters had told him they were anxious about what the trade dispute means for Hamilton.
Shaban campaigned on cost of living. “Today they spoke loud and clear that affordability is a must,” she said at her victory party at the Kingston Road branch of the Royal Canadian Legion. “It is not an afterthought.”
NDP leader Marit Stiles used the night to make a case about the next general election, arguing her party is the only one positioned to beat the Progressive Conservatives.
How much to read into it
Not much, on the numbers. Turnout of roughly a quarter of eligible voters, in three byelections held in late summer before a long weekend, is a thin basis for conclusions about 2029.
Peter Graefe, a political science professor at McMaster University, told CBC the trade dispute worked in Ford’s favour, particularly in Hamilton East—Stoney Creek, where steel tariffs land hardest. It also crowded out the opposition’s other lines of attack — among them the government’s $29-million jet purchase, reversed days later after a public backlash, and the hotel expenses that cost Tourism Minister Stan Cho his job.
Graefe’s own summary of the three races: “They were kind of nothing burgers.”
Sources: Elections Ontario unofficial results, as reported by CBC News and The Canadian Press.
Source: Elections Ontario.
